论文标题
2019年智利暴动的数学建模，这是一种流行病学非本地方法
Mathematical modeling of the Chilean riots of 2019, an epidemiological non-local approach
论文作者
论文摘要
在2019年10月下半年，智利，尤其是其首都圣地亚哥，遭受了公共和私人基础设施破坏的广泛暴力。这项工作旨在扩大一个流行病学非本地模型，该模型成功地描述了2005年法国的骚乱，以结合圣地亚哥的地铁网络的拓扑，并解释了该市骚乱活动的报道分布。尽管该模型再现了疾病的汇总时间演变，但它无法提供类似于观察到的圣地亚哥活动空间分布的结果。造成这种失败的主要原因可以归因于该模型缺乏人口流离失所机制的事实，这对于解释圣地亚哥的动乱发作似乎至关重要。
During the second half of October 2019, Chile, and especially its capital city, Santiago, suffered from widespread violence with public and private infrastructure destruction. This work aims to expand an epidemiological non-local model that successfully described the French riots of 2005 to incorporate the topology of Santiago's subway network and explain the reported distribution of rioting activity in the city. Although the model reproduced the disorders' aggregated temporal evolution, it could not deliver results resembling the observed spatial distribution of activity on Santiago. The main reason for this failure can be attributed to the fact that the model lacks a population displacement mechanism, which seems vital to explain Santiago's unrest episodes.
