论文标题

航空中复杂系统的安全分析方法

Safety Analysis Methods for Complex Systems in Aviation

论文作者

de Oliveira, Ítalo Romani, Fregnani, José Alexandre T. Guerreiro, Balvedi, Gláucia Costa, Ulrey, Michael L., Musiak, Jeffery D.

论文摘要

航空中的每个新的操作和设备生成概念都变得更加自动化,集成和互连。就无人飞机系统(UAS)而言,这种进化可以大大降低飞机的重量和运营成本,但是这些好处也可以在高度自动化的载人飞机和地面空中交通管制(ATC)系统中实现。这些进步的缺点是绝大多数更复杂的软件和硬件,因此很难识别潜在的故障路径。尽管有基于广泛接受的标准的强制性认证流程,例如ARP4754及其家人Esarr 4等,但这些标准不允许证明或纠纷颠覆性技术变化的安全性,例如GBAS精确方法,自主UAS,飞机自动分离等。为了利用这种概念的引入,有必要在复杂系统中的安全基础上建立牢固的知识,并利用这些知识来详细说明安全性或不安全的新系统设计。在早期设计阶段的这些演示将有助于降低开发新技术的成本,并降低使用此类技术的风险,从而在使用时造成事故。 本文介绍了一些不在行业标准中的安全分析方法,但我们确定为分析航空中先进技术概念的安全有好处。

Each new concept of operation and equipment generation in aviation becomes more automated, integrated and interconnected. In the case of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS), this evolution allows drastically decreasing aircraft weight and operational cost, but these benefits are also realized in highly automated manned aircraft and ground Air Traffic Control (ATC) systems. The downside of these advances is overwhelmingly more complex software and hardware, making it harder to identify potential failure paths. Although there are mandatory certification processes based on broadly accepted standards, such as ARP4754 and its family, ESARR 4 and others, these standards do not allow proof or disproof of safety of disruptive technology changes, such as GBAS Precision Approaches, Autonomous UAS, aircraft self-separation and others. In order to leverage the introduction of such concepts, it is necessary to develop solid knowledge on the foundations of safety in complex systems and use this knowledge to elaborate sound demonstrations of either safety or unsafety of new system designs. These demonstrations at early design stages will help reducing costs both on development of new technology as well as reducing the risk of such technology causing accidents when in use. This paper presents some safety analysis methods which are not in the industry standards but which we identify as having benefits for analyzing safety of advanced technological concepts in aviation.

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