论文标题
建模社会生态系统：实施高级模糊认知地图框架，用于解决复杂的现实生活挑战
Modelling Socio-ecological Systems: Implementation of an Advanced Fuzzy Cognitive Map Framework for Policy development for addressing complex real-life challenges
论文作者
论文摘要
这项研究实现了一种新型的模糊认知图（FCM）框架，用于解决大型复杂的社会生态问题。这些特征是定性的，以不确定性，人类参与为主，具有不同和模糊的看法/期望以及由于反馈关系而引起的复杂系统动态。 FCM框架提供了一种参与性软计算方法来开发共识解决方案。我们在案例研究中证明了它的实施：国家规模的急性水稀缺危机。该模型有八个步骤，从以FCM（双向图）的形式从利益相关者那里收集数据，该数据由节点和不精确的连接表示。所有后续步骤均在新的模糊2键盘框架内运行，该框架通过高级处理方法克服了先前的FCM限制，在该方法中，大型FCM被使用图理论度量进行了模糊和分析，凝结和汇总。 FCM被模拟为自动缔合性神经网络（AANN），以评估解决问题的政策解决方案。在这项研究中，通过捕获五个不同利益相关者群体的看法，考虑到约旦急性水短缺问题的原因，后果和挑战，开发了非常大的认知图。包含186个变量的复杂FCM全面涵盖了缺水的所有方面。将FCM缩合成两个级别的较小地图。他们还合并为五个利益相关者组FCM和一个整个系统FCM（总计123 FCM）。 AANN对政策方案的模拟是在整个系统FCM上进行的，首先是在最凝结的水平上，然后在接下来的两个粒度层面上移动，以探索潜在的解决方案。这些由新颖的模糊适当标准进行排名，以提供许多高水平和有效的策略来减轻水危机。
This study implements a novel Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) framework for addressing large complex socio-ecological problems. These are characterized as qualitative, dominated by uncertainty, human involvement with different and vague perceptions/expectations, and complex systems dynamics due to feedback relations. The FCM framework provides a participatory soft computing approach to develop consensus solutions. We demonstrate its implementation in a case study: a national-scale acute water scarcity crisis. The model has eight steps starting from collecting data from stakeholders in the form of FCMs (bi-directional graphs) represented by nodes and imprecise connections. All subsequent steps operate within a new fuzzy 2-tuple framework that overcomes previous FCM limitations through advanced processing methods, where large FCMs are fuzzified and analyzed, condensed, and aggregated using graph-theoretic measures. FCMs are simulated as Auto-Associative Neural Networks (AANN) to assess policy solutions to address the problem. In this study, very large cognitive maps were developed through interviews capturing perceptions of five different stakeholder groups taking into consideration the causes, consequences and challenges of the acute water scarcity problem in Jordan. The complex FCMs containing 186 variables comprehensively covered all aspects of water scarcity. FCMs were condensed into smaller maps in two levels. They were also combined into five stakeholder group FCMs and one whole system FCM (total 123 FCMs). AANN simulations of policy scenarios were conducted on the whole system FCM, first at the most condensed level and then moved top-down through the next two levels of granularity to explore potential solutions. These were ranked by a novel fuzzy Appropriateness criterion to provide a number of high level and effective strategies to mitigate the water crisis.
