论文标题
关于马格努斯·卡尔森（Magnus Carlsen）达到2900的可能性
On the Probability of Magnus Carlsen reaching 2900
论文作者
论文摘要
马格努斯·卡尔森（Magnus Carlsen）的ELO评级为$ 2900 $的可能性有多大？这一直是马格努斯的目标，并且是国际象棋社区的极大兴趣。我们的论文使用概率方法来解决这个问题。长期以来，已经研究了ELO评级系统的概率特性，我们提供了此类方法的应用。通过将Brownian运动模型应用于一个简单的工具，我们可以提供答案。我们的研究还对ELO系统中用于Grandmaster（GM）国际象棋的系统中使用的$ K $ FACTOR的选择也具有根本性。最后，我们在讨论$ k $ factor涉及的政策问题的讨论中得出结论。
How likely is it that Magnus Carlsen will achieve an Elo rating of $2900$? This has been a goal of Magnus and is of great current interest to the chess community. Our paper uses probabilistic methods to address this question. The probabilistic properties of Elo's rating system have long been studied, and we provide an application of such methods. By applying a Brownian motion model of Stern as a simple tool we provide answers. Our research also has fundamental bearing on the choice of the $K$-factor used in Elo's system for GrandMaster (GM) chess play. Finally, we conclude with a discussion of policy issues involved with the choice of $K$-factor.
