论文标题

在银行和保险中将因果推理应用于分析客户关系管理

Application of Causal Inference to Analytical Customer Relationship Management in Banking and Insurance

论文作者

Kumar, Satyam, Ravi, Vadlamani

论文摘要

最近,为了在各个领域具有更好的可接受性,研究人员认为,机器智能算法必须能够提供人类可以因果关系理解的解释。这方面也称为可控性,可以达到特定水平的人类水平解释性。一种称为反事实的特定算法可能能够提供因果关系。在统计学中,因果关系已经被研究和应用了很多年,但在人工智能(AI)方面却没有详细介绍。在一项首要研究中,我们采用了因果推论的原则来提供解释性来解决分析客户关系管理(ACRM)问题。在银行和保险的背景下,有关解释性的当前研究试图解决与因果关系有关的问题,例如为什么该模型做出这样的决定,并且该模型的选择是否受特定因素的影响?我们提出了一种干预形式的解决方案,其中在目标特征上研究了改变ACRM数据集特征的分布的效果。随后,还获得了一套反事实,可以向任何需要解释银行/保险公司做出决定的客户提供。除了信用卡流失预测数据集外,还为贷款默认,保险欺诈检测和信用卡欺诈检测数据集生成了高质量的反事实,其中观察到不超过三个功能的变化。

Of late, in order to have better acceptability among various domain, researchers have argued that machine intelligence algorithms must be able to provide explanations that humans can understand causally. This aspect, also known as causability, achieves a specific level of human-level explainability. A specific class of algorithms known as counterfactuals may be able to provide causability. In statistics, causality has been studied and applied for many years, but not in great detail in artificial intelligence (AI). In a first-of-its-kind study, we employed the principles of causal inference to provide explainability for solving the analytical customer relationship management (ACRM) problems. In the context of banking and insurance, current research on interpretability tries to address causality-related questions like why did this model make such decisions, and was the model's choice influenced by a particular factor? We propose a solution in the form of an intervention, wherein the effect of changing the distribution of features of ACRM datasets is studied on the target feature. Subsequently, a set of counterfactuals is also obtained that may be furnished to any customer who demands an explanation of the decision taken by the bank/insurance company. Except for the credit card churn prediction dataset, good quality counterfactuals were generated for the loan default, insurance fraud detection, and credit card fraud detection datasets, where changes in no more than three features are observed.

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