论文标题

随机中断的道路网络中的最佳出发时间建议

Optimal departure time advice in road networks with stochastic disruptions

论文作者

Kamphuis, Rens, Levering, Nikki, Mandjes, Michel

论文摘要

由于经常性(例如每日或每周)模式和非持续破坏(例如,由事件引起的),道路网络中的旅行时间与时间有关,并且固有地随机。对于计划未来旅行的旅行者来说,这是一项挑战,旨在确保准时到达目的地,同时还试图限制总旅行时间预算。本文的重点在于确定其最佳出发时间:可以保证选择的准时到达概率的最新出发时间。为了建模网络中的不确定性,使用了马尔可夫背景过程,跟踪影响链接上可驱动的车辆速度的事件,从而使我们能够同时融合经常性和非持续效应。鉴于每个单个链接在出发时的状态,它允许评估旅行时间分布。然后,设计了一种使用这些单独的链接旅行时间分布来获得给定路径或原点用途对的最佳出发时间的计算高效算法。由于道路网络中的条件以及背景过程的状态可能会在请求的时间和建议的出发时间之间发生变化,因此我们也考虑了此过程的在线版本,在该过程中,旅行者在仍处于原点时会收到出发时间更新。最后,进行数值实验以体现最佳出发时间的特性选择,此外,还量化了现有道路网络中介绍算法的性能 - 荷兰高速公路网络。

Due to recurrent (e.g. daily or weekly) patterns and non-recurrent disruptions (e.g. caused by incidents), travel times in road networks are time-dependent and inherently random. This is challenging for travelers planning a future trip, aiming to ensure on-time arrival at the destination, while also trying to limit the total travel-time budget spent. The focus of this paper lies on determining their optimal departure time: the latest time of departure for which a chosen on-time arrival probability can be guaranteed. To model the uncertainties in the network, a Markovian background process is used, tracking events affecting the driveable vehicle speeds on the links, thus enabling us to incorporate both recurrent and non-recurrent effects. It allows the evaluation of the travel-time distribution, given the state of this process at departure, on each single link. Then, a computationally efficient algorithm is devised that uses these individual link travel-time distributions to obtain the optimal departure time for a given path or origin-destination pair. Since the conditions in the road network, and thus the state of the background process, may change between the time of request and the advised time of departure, we consider an online version of this procedure as well, in which the traveler receives departure time updates while still at the origin. Finally, numerical experiments are conducted to exemplify a selection of properties of the optimal departure time and, moreover, quantify the performance of the presented algorithms in an existing road network -- the Dutch highway network.

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