论文标题

2050年全球GIS的潜在分析和Power-To-X燃料的成本评估

Global GIS-based potential analysis and cost assessment of Power-to-X fuels in 2050

论文作者

Pfennig, Maximilian, Böttger, Diana, Häckner, Benedikt, Geiger, David, Zink, Christoph, Bisevic, André, Jansen, Lukas

论文摘要

储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具,其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而,其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间,然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用,该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明,使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器,即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程,也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后,我们表明,当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声,甚至控制方程变得不准确时,我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测,从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。

Electricity-based fuels from renewable energies are regarded as a key instrument for climate protection. These Power-to-X (PtX) products are to replace fossil fuels in sectors where direct use of electricity from renewable energies is not possible. We investigate the production potential of PtX fuels from onshore wind energy and ground-mounted photovoltaic energy for all countries outside the European Economic Area along 14 PtX production pathways. These include hydrogen, several hydrocarbons and ammonia. The technical and economic potential assessment is based on data with hourly temporal and high spatial resolution. The analysis considers various criteria, including weather conditions, nature conservation concerns and land use. The results show the production quantities and costs of climate-friendly fuel production under strict sustainability criteria and locate them spatially. It is shown that many regions of the world are well suited to produce PtX products. The production quantity outside Europe is up to 120,000 TWh/yr of hydrogen or 87,000 TWh/yr of hydrocarbons in the long term. We identify 97 countries with potentials, of which 38 countries possess relevant potentials of more than 100 TWh/yr. The largest suitable areas are in the United States, Australia and Argentina. The production costs vary a lot across the different regions. The lowest production costs for PtX generation are in Latin America (Chile, Argentina and Venezuela) and Mauritania with a lower limit of 42.3 EUR/MWh to 46.5 EUR/MWh for gaseous hydrogen and 84 EUR/MWh to 89.1 EUR/MWh for Fischer-Tropsch fuels. All best sites are pure wind or combined wind and photovoltaic sites. Moreover, we show import options of these PtX products to Europe considering socioeconomic factors and transport costs. All investigation results are freely accessible via the Global PtX Atlas on https://maps.iee.fraunhofer.de/ptx-atlas/.

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