论文标题

部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测

Fast fitting of neural ordinary differential equations by Bayesian neural gradient matching to infer ecological interactions from time series data

论文作者

Bonnaffé, Willem, Coulson, Tim

论文摘要

储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具,其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而,其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间,然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用,该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明,使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器,即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程,也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后,我们表明,当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声,甚至控制方程变得不准确时,我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测,从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。

1. Inferring ecological interactions is hard because we often lack suitable parametric representations to portray them. Neural ordinary differential equations (NODEs) provide a way of estimating interactions nonparametrically from time series data. NODEs, however, are slow to fit, and inferred interactions have not been truthed. 2. We provide a fast NODE fitting method, Bayesian neural gradient matching (BNGM), which relies on interpolating time series with neural networks, and fitting NODEs to the interpolated dynamics with Bayesian regularisation. We test the accuracy of the approach by inferring ecological interactions in time series generated by an ODE model with known interactions. We also infer interactions in experimentally replicated time series of a microcosm featuring an algae, flagellate, and rotifer population, as well as in the hare and lynx system. 3. Our BNGM approach allows us to cut down the fitting time of NODE systems to only a few seconds. The method provides accurate estimates of ecological interactions in the artificial system, as linear and nonlinear true interactions are estimated with minimal error. In the real systems, dynamics are driven by a mixture of linear and nonlinear ecological interactions, of which only the strongest are consistent across replicates. 4. Overall, NODEs alleviate the need for a mechanistic understanding of interactions, and BNGM alleviates the heavy computational cost. This is a crucial step availing quick NODE fitting, cross-validation, and uncertainty quantification, as well as more objective estimation of interactions, and complex context dependence, than parametric models.

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