论文标题
评估流行病的底部：对Maruotti等人的反应。 2022
Evaluating undercounts in epidemics: response to Maruotti et al. 2022
论文作者
论文摘要
Maruotti等。 2022年，使用了标记 - 收选方法来估计各个国家中蒙基太感染的真实数量的界限。这些方法从根本上存在缺陷；仅基于单个报告的病例流进行估计降低估计。基于理查兹曲线的累积发生率的仿真表明，对于合理的流行参数，所提出的方法在确定比率约为0.2-0.5 $上估计界限，大致与真实的确定比率大致独立。这些方法不应使用。
Maruotti et al. 2022 used a mark-recapture approach to estimate bounds on the true number of monkeypox infections in various countries. These approaches are fundamentally flawed; it is impossible to estimate undercounting based solely on a single stream of reported cases. Simulations based on a Richards curve for cumulative incidence show that, for reasonable epidemic parameters, the proposed methods estimate bounds on the ascertainment ratio of $\approx 0.2-0.5$ roughly independently of the true ascertainment ratio. These methods should not be used.
