论文标题
SIR类型的时间依赖性非均匀随机流行模型
Time-dependent non-homogeneous stochastic epidemic model of SIR type
论文作者
论文摘要
为了更好地描述疾病的传播，我们扩展了塔克威尔和威廉姆斯的离散时间随机sir型流行模型。我们假设依赖每日相遇数量的时间，并包括一个参数，以代表传染病的可能的隔离。我们提供了对马尔可夫模型的分析描述，并研究了其动态。扩散近似和基本繁殖数均得出。通过几个模拟，我们展示了疾病的演变如何受到日常遭遇数量及其对时间的依赖的分布的影响。
To better describe the spread of a disease, we extend a discrete time stochastic SIR-type epidemic model of Tuckwell and Williams. We assume the dependence on time of the number of daily encounters and include a parameter to represent a possible quarantine of the infectious individuals. We provide an analytic description of this Markovian model and investigate its dynamics. Both a diffusion approximation and the basic reproduction number are derived. Through several simulations, we show how the evolution of a disease is affected by the distribution of the number of daily encounters and its dependence on time.
