论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
A comparative study on different background estimation methods for extensive air shower arrays
论文作者
论文摘要
储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具,其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而,其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间,然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用,该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明,使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器,即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程,也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后,我们表明,当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声,甚至控制方程变得不准确时,我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测,从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。
Background estimation is essential when studying TeV gamma-ray astronomy for extensive air shower arrays. In this work, by applying four applying four different methods including equi-zenith angle method, surrounding window method, direct integration method, and time-swapping method, the number of the background events is calculated. Based on simulation samples, the statistical significance of the excess signal from different background estimation methods is determined. Following this, we discuss the limits and the applicability of the four methods under different conditions. Under the detector stability assumption with signal, the results from the above four methods are consistent at the 1 sigma level. In the no signal condition, when the acceptance of the detector changes with both space and time, the surrounding window method is most stable and hardly affected. In this acceptance assumption, we find that the background estimation in the direct integration and time-swapping methods are sensitive to the selection of time window, and the shorter time window can reduce the impact on the background estimation to some extent.