论文标题
在即时径流投票选举中进行关键投票的可能性
The probability of casting a pivotal vote in an Instant Runoff Voting election
论文作者
论文摘要
我得出了在即时径流投票选举中投票的可能性将改变选举冠军。我用候选人的预期投票总数来表达这一可能性，然后我估计其对不同选民偏好分布的规模。结果与在单个成员的地区多数选举中进行关键投票的可能性非常相似，这表明即时径流投票实际上并没有增加或减少选民进行战略性投票的激励措施。该派生揭示了我称之为“间接关键性”的违反直觉现象，其中选民可以通过对选票中的其他一些候选人进行排名，使一名候选人获胜。
I derive the probability that a vote cast in an Instant Runoff Voting election will change the election winner. I phrase that probability in terms of the candidates' expected vote totals, and then I estimate its magnitude for different distributions of voter preferences. The result is very similar to the probability of casting a pivotal vote in a Single-Member District Plurality election, which suggests that Instant Runoff Voting does not actually increase or decrease voters' incentives to vote strategically. The derivation uncovers a counter-intuitive phenomenon that I call "indirect pivotality", in which a voter can cause one candidate to win by ranking some other candidate on their ballot.
