论文标题
Hubbert模型对全球采矿行业的适用性：解释和见解
Applicability of Hubbert model to global mining industry: Interpretations and insights
论文作者
论文摘要
Hubert的模型是在1956年引入的，是美国油田生产时间演变的现象学描述。从那时起，它作为资源耗竭的一种概念方法而获得了广泛的臭名昭著。如今，在能源过渡的背景下，通常会调用它，以质疑矿物库存限制所引起的局限性。然而，尽管它很受欢迎，但其有效性通常是有争议的。本文提供了模型的教学介绍，评估了其描述20个采矿元素的当前演变的能力，并讨论了从Hubbert模型被认为是用于铸造或作为远见工具的结论的性质和鲁棒性。我们提出了一种新颖的方式，将这些结论以图形方式表示为“ Hubbert的地图”，该结论可直接可视化其主要特征。
The Hubert's model has been introduced in 1956 as a phenomenological description of the time evolution of US oil fields production. It has since then acquired a vast notoriety as a conceptual approach to resource depletion. It is often invoked nowadays in the context of the energy transition to question the limitations induced by the finitude of mineral stocks. Yet, its validity is often controversial despite its popularity. This paper offers a pedagogical introduction to the model, assesses its ability to describe the current evolution of 20 mining elements, and discusses the nature and robustness of conclusions drawn from Hubbert's model considered either as a for cast or as a foresight tool. We propose a novel way to represent graphically these conclusions as a "Hubbert's map" which offers direct visualization of their main features.
