论文标题

基于方案的自动车辆预测模型评估

Scenario-based Evaluation of Prediction Models for Automated Vehicles

论文作者

Sánchez, Manuel Muñoz, Elfring, Jos, Silvas, Emilia, van de Molengraft, René

论文摘要

为了安全操作,自动化车辆(AV)必须预测周围环境将如何发展。为此,重要的是要知道哪些预测模型最适合每种情况。当前,对预测模型的评估通常是在一组轨迹上进行的,而不会区分其捕获的运动类型,从而导致无法确定每个模型对不同情况的适用性。在这项工作中,我们说明了标准化评估方法如何导致关于模型的预测能力的错误结论,从而防止了对预测模型的明确评估,并可能导致危险的公路情况。我们认为,遵循对AV的安全评估的评估实践,应以基于情况的方式对预测模型进行评估。为了鼓励基于方案的预测模型评估并说明评估不当的危险,我们根据捕获的运动类型对Waymo开放运动数据集进行了分类。接下来,对不同的轨迹类型和预测范围进行了彻底评估三个不同的模型。结果表明,常见的评估方法不足,应根据模型的应用程序进行评估。

To operate safely, an automated vehicle (AV) must anticipate how the environment around it will evolve. For that purpose, it is important to know which prediction models are most appropriate for every situation. Currently, assessment of prediction models is often performed over a set of trajectories without distinction of the type of movement they capture, resulting in the inability to determine the suitability of each model for different situations. In this work we illustrate how standardized evaluation methods result in wrong conclusions regarding a model's predictive capabilities, preventing a clear assessment of prediction models and potentially leading to dangerous on-road situations. We argue that following evaluation practices in safety assessment for AVs, assessment of prediction models should be performed in a scenario-based fashion. To encourage scenario-based assessment of prediction models and illustrate the dangers of improper assessment, we categorize trajectories of the Waymo Open Motion dataset according to the type of movement they capture. Next, three different models are thoroughly evaluated for different trajectory types and prediction horizons. Results show that common evaluation methods are insufficient and the assessment should be performed depending on the application in which the model will operate.

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