论文标题

部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测

The orbital evolution of Atira asteroids

论文作者

Lai, Hsuan-Ting, Ip, Wing-Huen

论文摘要

储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具,其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而,其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间,然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用,该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明,使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器,即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程,也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后,我们表明,当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声,甚至控制方程变得不准确时,我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测,从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。

Asteroids having perihelion distance $q$ $<$ 1.3 AU are classified as near-Earth objects (NEOs), which are divided into different sub-groups: Vatira-class, Atira-class, Aten-class, Apollo-class, and Amor-class. 2020 $AV_2$, the first Vatira (Orbiting totally inside Venus' orbit) was discovered by the Twilight project of the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) on January 4, 2020. Upon the discovery of 2020 $AV_2$, a couple of orbital studies of the short-term orbital evolution of 2020 $AV_2$ have been performed and published (e.g. de la Fuente Marcos & de la Fuente Marcos 2020; Greenstreet 2020). In this present work, we performed an assessment of the long-term orbital evolution of known near-Earth objects and known Atiras under the Yarkovsky effect by using the \textit{Mercury6} N-body code. We considered not only planetary gravitational perturbation but also the non-gravitational Yarkovsky effect. Our calculation shows that the NEOs have generally two dynamical populations, one short-lived and the other long-lived. From our calculation, the transfer probabilities of Atira-class asteroids to Vatira-class asteroids for the first transition are $\sim$13.1 $\pm$ 0.400, $\sim$13.05 $\pm$ 0.005, and $\sim$ 13.25 $\pm$ 0.450 $\%$ for different values of the Yarkovsky force (i.e. obliquity of 0, 90, and 180 deg.), respectively. It suggests that the radiation force may play some role in the long-term evolution of this asteroid population. Finally, our statistical study implicates that there should be 8.14 $\pm$ 0.133 Atira-class asteroids and 1.05 $\pm$ 0.075 Vatira-asteroids of the S-type taxonomy.

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