论文标题
合成BLIP效应:概括动态处理状态的合成控制
Synthetic Blip Effects: Generalizing Synthetic Controls for the Dynamic Treatment Regime
论文作者
论文摘要
我们提出将合成控制和合成干预方法的概括为动态治疗方案。我们考虑通过动态治疗方案和存在未观察到的混杂性收集的面板数据的单位特异性治疗效果的估计。也就是说,每个单元根据自适应策略依次接收多种处理,该策略取决于治疗单元的潜在内源性内源性的混杂状态。在低级别的潜在因子模型假设和技术重叠假设下,我们为任何干预序列下的任何单位特定均值结果提出了识别策略。我们提出的潜在因素模型将线性时变和时间不变的动态系统作为特殊情况。我们的方法可以看作是在低级别的潜在因素对BLIP效应的假设下的结构嵌套平均模型的识别策略。我们称其为“合成blip效应”的方法是一个向后的感应过程,在每个时期和目标单位的BLIP效应中,将其递归表示为仔细选择的其他单位的BLIP效应的线性组合,这些单位已选择接受指定治疗。我们的工作避免了在这种动态治疗方案中使用先前合成控制和合成干预方法的香草应用的单位数量中的组合爆炸。
We propose a generalization of the synthetic control and synthetic interventions methodology to the dynamic treatment regime. We consider the estimation of unit-specific treatment effects from panel data collected via a dynamic treatment regime and in the presence of unobserved confounding. That is, each unit receives multiple treatments sequentially, based on an adaptive policy, which depends on a latent endogenously time-varying confounding state of the treated unit. Under a low-rank latent factor model assumption and a technical overlap assumption we propose an identification strategy for any unit-specific mean outcome under any sequence of interventions. The latent factor model we propose admits linear time-varying and time-invariant dynamical systems as special cases. Our approach can be seen as an identification strategy for structural nested mean models under a low-rank latent factor assumption on the blip effects. Our method, which we term "synthetic blip effects", is a backwards induction process, where the blip effect of a treatment at each period and for a target unit is recursively expressed as linear combinations of blip effects of a carefully chosen group of other units that received the designated treatment. Our work avoids the combinatorial explosion in the number of units that would be required by a vanilla application of prior synthetic control and synthetic intervention methods in such dynamic treatment regime settings.