论文标题
二氧化碳强迫的状态依赖性及其对气候灵敏度的影响
State-dependence of CO2 Forcing and its Implications for Climate Sensitivity
论文作者
论文摘要
当评估二氧化碳变化对地球气候的影响时，人们普遍认为，从给定的二氧化碳浓度加倍（IRF2XCO2）中瞬时辐射强迫是恒定的，并且气候敏感性的差异是由于辐射反馈的差异而引起的，或者这些反馈对这些反馈的依赖对这些反馈的依赖性。在本文中，我们表明IRF2XCO2不是恒定的，而是取决于气候基础状态，每次加倍CO2都会增加约25％，自从前工业时代以来，主要是由于平流层冷却，这意味着气候敏感性成比例的增加。该基态依赖性还解释了IRF2XCO2中模型间扩散的一半，这个问题已经在气候模型中持续了近三十年。
When evaluating the effect of CO2 changes on the earth's climate, it is widely assumed that instantaneous radiative forcing from a doubling of a given CO2 concentration (IRF2xCO2) is constant and that variances in climate sensitivity arise from differences in radiative feedbacks, or a dependence of these feedbacks on the climatological base-state. In this paper, we show that the IRF2xCO2 is not constant, but also depends on the climatological base-state, increasing by ~25% for every doubling of CO2, and has increased by ~10% since the pre-industrial era primarily due to stratospheric cooling, implying a proportionate increase in climate sensitivity. This base-state dependence also explains about half of the inter-model spread in IRF2xCO2, a problem that has persisted among climate models for nearly three decades.
