论文标题

部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测

Estimating oil and gas recovery factors via machine learning: Database-dependent accuracy and reliability

论文作者

Roustazadeh, Alireza, Ghanbarian, Behzad, Shadmand, Mohammad B., Taslimitehrani, Vahid, Lake, Larry W.

论文摘要

储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具,其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而,其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间,然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用,该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明,使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器,即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程,也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后,我们表明,当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声,甚至控制方程变得不准确时,我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测,从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。

With recent advances in artificial intelligence, machine learning (ML) approaches have become an attractive tool in petroleum engineering, particularly for reservoir characterizations. A key reservoir property is hydrocarbon recovery factor (RF) whose accurate estimation would provide decisive insights to drilling and production strategies. Therefore, this study aims to estimate the hydrocarbon RF for exploration from various reservoir characteristics, such as porosity, permeability, pressure, and water saturation via the ML. We applied three regression-based models including the extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), support vector machine (SVM), and stepwise multiple linear regression (MLR) and various combinations of three databases to construct ML models and estimate the oil and/or gas RF. Using two databases and the cross-validation method, we evaluated the performance of the ML models. In each iteration 90 and 10% of the data were respectively used to train and test the models. The third independent database was then used to further assess the constructed models. For both oil and gas RFs, we found that the XGBoost model estimated the RF for the train and test datasets more accurately than the SVM and MLR models. However, the performance of all the models were unsatisfactory for the independent databases. Results demonstrated that the ML algorithms were highly dependent and sensitive to the databases based on which they were trained. Statistical tests revealed that such unsatisfactory performances were because the distributions of input features and target variables in the train datasets were significantly different from those in the independent databases (p-value < 0.05).

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