论文标题

部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测

A Temporal Type-2 Fuzzy System for Time-dependent Explainable Artificial Intelligence

论文作者

Kiani, Mehrin, Andreu-Perez, Javier, Hagras, Hani

论文摘要

储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具,其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而,其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间,然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用,该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明,使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器,即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程,也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后,我们表明,当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声,甚至控制方程变得不准确时,我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测,从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。

Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) is a paradigm that delivers transparent models and decisions, which are easy to understand, analyze, and augment by a non-technical audience. Fuzzy Logic Systems (FLS) based XAI can provide an explainable framework, while also modeling uncertainties present in real-world environments, which renders it suitable for applications where explainability is a requirement. However, most real-life processes are not characterized by high levels of uncertainties alone; they are inherently time-dependent as well, i.e., the processes change with time. In this work, we present novel Temporal Type-2 FLS Based Approach for time-dependent XAI (TXAI) systems, which can account for the likelihood of a measurement's occurrence in the time domain using (the measurement's) frequency of occurrence. In Temporal Type-2 Fuzzy Sets (TT2FSs), a four-dimensional (4D) time-dependent membership function is developed where relations are used to construct the inter-relations between the elements of the universe of discourse and its frequency of occurrence. The TXAI system manifested better classification prowess, with 10-fold test datasets, with a mean recall of 95.40\% than a standard XAI system (based on non-temporal general type-2 (GT2) fuzzy sets) that had a mean recall of 87.04\%. TXAI also performed significantly better than most non-explainable AI systems between 3.95\%, to 19.04\% improvement gain in mean recall. In addition, TXAI can also outline the most likely time-dependent trajectories using the frequency of occurrence values embedded in the TXAI model; viz. given a rule at a determined time interval, what will be the next most likely rule at a subsequent time interval. In this regard, the proposed TXAI system can have profound implications for delineating the evolution of real-life time-dependent processes, such as behavioural or biological processes.

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