论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
Hyperbolic meteors: is CNEOS 2014-01-08 interstellar?
论文作者
论文摘要
储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具，其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而，其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间，然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用，该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明，使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器，即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程，也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后，我们表明，当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声，甚至控制方程变得不准确时，我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测，从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。
In 2019 a claim was made that the CNEOS 2014-01-08 meteor is interstellar. However, apparent interstellar meteors have been detected for decades. Moreover, they are expected from any meteor observation survey, as a natural consequence of measurement error propagation. Here we examine if enough scientific data were published to identify the orbital and physical nature of CNEOS 2014-01-08. Given the lack of proof regarding the accuracy of the observation, the derivation of the trajectory, velocity and tensile strength, and given the current state of meteor observations and reduction tools, we find no scientific ground to conclude about the interstellar orbit nor the physical properties of CNEOS 2014-01-08. Moreover, given the current data release of this object, to find any piece at the bottom of the ocean seems extremely unlikely.
