论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
Final Report on MITRE Evaluations for the DARPA Big Mechanism Program
论文作者
论文摘要
储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具,其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而,其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间,然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用,该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明,使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器,即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程,也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后,我们表明,当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声,甚至控制方程变得不准确时,我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测,从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。
This report presents the evaluation approach developed for the DARPA Big Mechanism program, which aimed at developing computer systems that will read research papers, integrate the information into a computer model of cancer mechanisms, and frame new hypotheses. We employed an iterative, incremental approach to the evaluation of the three phases of the program. In Phase I, we evaluated the ability of system and human teams ability to read-with-a-model to capture mechanistic information from the biomedical literature, integrated with information from expert curated biological databases. In Phase II we evaluated the ability of systems to assemble fragments of information into a mechanistic model. The Phase III evaluation focused on the ability of systems to provide explanations of experimental observations based on models assembled (largely automatically) by the Big Mechanism process. The evaluation for each phase built on earlier evaluations and guided developers towards creating capabilities for the new phase. The report describes our approach, including innovations such as a reference set (a curated data set limited to major findings of each paper) to assess the accuracy of systems in extracting mechanistic findings in the absence of a gold standard, and a method to evaluate model-based explanations of experimental data. Results of the evaluation and supporting materials are included in the appendices.