论文标题
时变贝叶斯网络荟萃分析
Time-varying Bayesian Network Meta-Analysis
论文作者
论文摘要
复杂的皮肤和软结构感染（CSSSI）在复杂的皮肤和软结构感染中存在耐甲氧西林\ textit {葡萄球菌金黄色葡萄球菌}（MRSA）与患者的健康风险和经济成本更大有关。人们担心MRSA正在对其他“黄金标准”疗法（如万古霉素）具有抵抗力，并且与LineZolid相比，Vancocymin的相对疗效存在分歧。有几篇评论论文采用贝叶斯网络荟萃分析（BNMA）来研究哪种治疗方法最适合MRSA相关的CSSSIS，但没有解决基于时间的设计不一致的问题。本文提出了随时间变化的BNMA（TBNMA），该BNMA（TBNMA）使用高斯工艺内核对整个研究的时变治疗效果进行了建模。从现有的MRSA CSSSI NMA评论论文中收集了一个数据集，其中包含58项研究，比较了19年的19种治疗方法。 TBNMA发现了万古霉素治疗效应的非线性趋势的证据 - 它在2002年至2007年之间的效果不如LineZolid有效，但此后恢复了统计等效性。
The presence of methicillin-resistant \textit{Staphylococus Aureus} (MRSA) in complicated skin and soft structure infections (cSSSI) is associated with greater health risks and economic costs to patients. There is concern that MRSA is becoming resistant to other "gold standard" treatments such as vancomycin, and there is disagreement about the relative efficacy of vancocymin compared to linezolid. There are several review papers employing Bayesian Network Meta-Analyses (BNMAs) to investigate which treatments are best for MRSA related cSSSIs, but none address time-based design inconsistencies. This paper proposes a time-varying BNMA (tBNMA), which models time-varying treatment effects across studies using a Gaussian Process kernel. A dataset is compiled from nine existing MRSA cSSSI NMA review papers containing 58 studies comparing 19 treatments over 19 years. tBNMA finds evidence of a non-linear trend in the treatment effect of vancomycin - it became less effective than linezolid between 2002 and 2007, but has since recovered statistical equivalence.
