论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
Maximizing the Probability of Fixation in the Positional Voter Model
论文作者
论文摘要
储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具,其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而,其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间,然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用,该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明,使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器,即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程,也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后,我们表明,当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声,甚至控制方程变得不准确时,我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测,从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。
The Voter model is a well-studied stochastic process that models the invasion of a novel trait $A$ (e.g., a new opinion, social meme, genetic mutation, magnetic spin) in a network of individuals (agents, people, genes, particles) carrying an existing resident trait $B$. Individuals change traits by occasionally sampling the trait of a neighbor, while an invasion bias $δ\geq 0$ expresses the stochastic preference to adopt the novel trait $A$ over the resident trait $B$. The strength of an invasion is measured by the probability that eventually the whole population adopts trait $A$, i.e., the fixation probability. In more realistic settings, however, the invasion bias is not ubiquitous, but rather manifested only in parts of the network. For instance, when modeling the spread of a social trait, the invasion bias represents localized incentives. In this paper, we generalize the standard biased Voter model to the positional Voter model, in which the invasion bias is effectuated only on an arbitrary subset of the network nodes, called biased nodes. We study the ensuing optimization problem, which is, given a budget $k$, to choose $k$ biased nodes so as to maximize the fixation probability of a randomly occurring invasion. We show that the problem is NP-hard both for finite $δ$ and when $δ\rightarrow \infty$ (strong bias), while the objective function is not submodular in either setting, indicating strong computational hardness. On the other hand, we show that, when $δ\rightarrow 0$ (weak bias), we can obtain a tight approximation in $O(n^{2ω})$ time, where $ω$ is the matrix-multiplication exponent. We complement our theoretical results with an experimental evaluation of some proposed heuristics.