论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
A New Formula for Faster Computation of the K-Fold Cross-Validation and Good Regularisation Parameter Values in Ridge Regression
论文作者
论文摘要
储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具,其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而,其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间,然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用,该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明,使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器,即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程,也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后,我们表明,当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声,甚至控制方程变得不准确时,我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测,从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。
In the present paper, we prove a new theorem, resulting in an update formula for linear regression model residuals calculating the exact k-fold cross-validation residuals for any choice of cross-validation strategy without model refitting. The required matrix inversions are limited by the cross-validation segment sizes and can be executed with high efficiency in parallel. The well-known formula for leave-one-out cross-validation follows as a special case of the theorem. In situations where the cross-validation segments consist of small groups of repeated measurements, we suggest a heuristic strategy for fast serial approximations of the cross-validated residuals and associated Predicted Residual Sum of Squares (PRESS) statistic. We also suggest strategies for efficient estimation of the minimum PRESS value and full PRESS function over a selected interval of regularisation values. The computational effectiveness of the parameter selection for Ridge- and Tikhonov regression modelling resulting from our theoretical findings and heuristic arguments is demonstrated in several applications with real and highly multivariate datasets.