论文标题
2006 - 2010年哥伦比亚参议院的政治偏好的贝叶斯建模：选举行为和副派教徒
Bayesian modeling of the political preferences of the Colombian Senate 2006-2010: electoral behavior and parapolitics
论文作者
论文摘要
在本文中，首次采用了贝叶斯空间投票模型来表征2006 - 2010年哥伦比亚共和国参议院的立法行为。该分析是根据参议院全体名义票进行的。模型的估计是使用Markov Monte Carlo链算法进行的。估计的理想观点提供了支持潜在的非意识形态特征（反对派 - 未置信）的经验证据。此外，通过贝叶斯和频繁主义者的逻辑模型分析了旁皮丑闻与参议员的立法行为之间的关系。结果表明，从2006 - 2010年期间，参议员参与了旁皮丑闻与参议员的立法行为之间存在显着关系。
In this paper, a Bayesian spatial voting model is applied for the first time to characterize the legislative behavior of the Senate of the Republic of Colombia for the period 2006-2010. The analysis is carried out based on the plenary nominal votes of the Senate. The estimation of the model is done using Markov Monte Carlo chain algorithms. The estimated ideal points provide empirical evidence supporting a latent non-ideological feature (opposition--non-opposition) underlying senators' voting. Additionally, the relationship between the parapolitics scandal and the legislative behavior of senators is analyzed through a logistic model, both Bayesian and frequentist. The results indicate a significant relationship between being or having been involved with the parapolitics scandal and the legislative behavior of the senators from the period 2006-2010.
