论文标题
混合离散选择模型的非参数估计
Non-parametric estimation of mixed discrete choice models
论文作者
论文摘要
在本文中,将不同的文献链合并在一起,以获取用于半参数估算离散选择模型的算法,其中包括通过使用定义偏好的参数的混合分布来建模未观察到的异质性。这些模型对已开发用于一般混合模型的非参数最大似然估计(NP-MLE)的理论使用了理论。 NP-MLE文献中使用的期望最大化(EM)技术与使用自适应网格技术选择适当近似模型的策略相结合。 \\共同导致用于规范和估计的技术,可用于获得混合分布的一致规范。此外,还开发了估计算法,这有助于减少因维度诅咒而导致的问题。 \\在小型模拟研究中证明了所提出的算法可用于离散选择环境中混合模型的规范和估计,提供了有关混合分布规范的一些信息。模拟记录了混合分布的某些方面(例如期望)可以可靠地估计。但是,他们还证明,通常与混合分布的近似值不同,导致可能性相似,因此很难区分。因此,似乎无法可靠地推断出估计混合分布的最合适的参数形式。
In this paper, different strands of literature are combined in order to obtain algorithms for semi-parametric estimation of discrete choice models that include the modelling of unobserved heterogeneity by using mixing distributions for the parameters defining the preferences. The models use the theory on non-parametric maximum likelihood estimation (NP-MLE) that has been developed for general mixing models. The expectation-maximization (EM) techniques used in the NP-MLE literature are combined with strategies for choosing appropriate approximating models using adaptive grid techniques. \\ Jointly this leads to techniques for specification and estimation that can be used to obtain a consistent specification of the mixing distribution. Additionally, also algorithms for the estimation are developed that help to decrease problems due to the curse of dimensionality. \\ The proposed algorithms are demonstrated in a small scale simulation study to be useful for the specification and estimation of mixture models in the discrete choice context providing some information on the specification of the mixing distribution. The simulations document that some aspects of the mixing distribution such as the expectation can be estimated reliably. They also demonstrate, however, that typically different approximations to the mixing distribution lead to similar values of the likelihood and hence are hard to discriminate. Therefore it does not appear to be possible to reliably infer the most appropriate parametric form for the estimated mixing distribution.