论文标题
在当前和将来的模拟中，中纬度斗篷与潮湿的静态能量之间的牢固关系
Robust Relationship Between Mid-latitudes CAPE and Moist Static Energy in Present and Future Simulations
论文作者
论文摘要
对流可用的势能（CAPE）是与恶劣天气相关的指标，预计随着变暖而增加。根据最广泛的理论，是针对强烈的对流政权开发的，平均斗篷应在6-7％/k的克劳西乌斯 - 克拉佩龙（C-C）关系之后上升。我们在这里表明，尽管高分辨率模型输出的斗篷变化的幅度仅被简单的理论略微低估了，但它不足以描述分布变化，该分布变化具有下滑结构，对于影响评估至关重要。一个更合适的框架来理解斗篷变化，使用了斗篷与潮湿的静态能量（MSE）盈余之间的紧密相关性。只有当MSE盈余变得积极时，大气剖面才会形成明显的斗篷。除此之外，Cape增加了MSE盈余增长的$ 25％的$ 25％。由于这种关系在整个气候状态之间是牢固的，因此仅使用三个参数对当今数据的简单缩放可以很好地捕捉未来的Cape分布的变化。
Convective available potential energy (CAPE), a metric associated with severe weather, is expected to increase with warming. Under the most widely-accepted theory, developed for strongly convective regimes, mean CAPE should rise following the Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) relationship at 6-7%/K. We show here that although the magnitude of CAPE change in high-resolution model output is only slightly underestimated with simple theories, it is insufficient to describe the distributional changes, which has a down-sloping structure and is crucial for impact assessment. A more appropriate framework for understanding CAPE changes uses the tight correlation between CAPE and moist static energy (MSE) surplus. Atmospheric profiles develop appreciable CAPE only when MSE surplus becomes positive; beyond this point, CAPE increases as $\sim$25% of the rise in MSE surplus. Because this relationship is robust across climate states, changes in future CAPE distributions can be well-captured by a simple scaling of present-day data using only three parameters.
