论文标题
AUTOPV:使用预训练的模型合奏的自动化光伏预测有限的信息
AutoPV: Automated photovoltaic forecasts with limited information using an ensemble of pre-trained models
论文作者
论文摘要
准确的光伏(PV)发电预测对于智能电网的有效操作至关重要。单个PV植物的这种准确预测模型的自动设计包括两个挑战:首先,有关PV安装配置(即倾斜度和方位角)的信息通常缺失。其次,对于新的PV植物,用于训练预测模型的历史数据量有限(冷启动问题)。我们通过提出一种新方法来解决这两个挑战,该方法称为AUTOPV的日常光伏发电预测。 AUTOPV是代表不同PV安装配置的预测模型的加权集合。通过在单独的PV工厂上预先培训每个预测模型,并通过相应的PV工厂的峰值功率等级来缩放模型的输出来实现此表示形式。为了解决冷启动问题,我们最初平等地加权每个预测模型。为了解决缺少有关PV安装配置的信息的问题,我们使用在操作过程中可用的新数据来调整集合权重以最大程度地减少预测错误。 AUTOPV是有利的,因为未知的PV安装配置被隐式地反映在整体重量中,并且只有PV工厂的峰值功率等级才能重新缩放合奏的输出。 AUTOPV还允许用带有不同对齐的不同屋顶上的面板表示PV植物,因为这些安装配置可以在加权中按比例反映。此外,将AUTOPV缩放到数百个PV植物时,所需的计算内存是分解的,这在计算功能有限的智能网格中是有益的。对于具有11个PV植物的现实世界数据集,AUTOPV的准确性可与对两年数据进行训练的模型相媲美,并且表现优于受过训练的模型。
Accurate PhotoVoltaic (PV) power generation forecasting is vital for the efficient operation of Smart Grids. The automated design of such accurate forecasting models for individual PV plants includes two challenges: First, information about the PV mounting configuration (i.e. inclination and azimuth angles) is often missing. Second, for new PV plants, the amount of historical data available to train a forecasting model is limited (cold-start problem). We address these two challenges by proposing a new method for day-ahead PV power generation forecasts called AutoPV. AutoPV is a weighted ensemble of forecasting models that represent different PV mounting configurations. This representation is achieved by pre-training each forecasting model on a separate PV plant and by scaling the model's output with the peak power rating of the corresponding PV plant. To tackle the cold-start problem, we initially weight each forecasting model in the ensemble equally. To tackle the problem of missing information about the PV mounting configuration, we use new data that become available during operation to adapt the ensemble weights to minimize the forecasting error. AutoPV is advantageous as the unknown PV mounting configuration is implicitly reflected in the ensemble weights, and only the PV plant's peak power rating is required to re-scale the ensemble's output. AutoPV also allows to represent PV plants with panels distributed on different roofs with varying alignments, as these mounting configurations can be reflected proportionally in the weighting. Additionally, the required computing memory is decoupled when scaling AutoPV to hundreds of PV plants, which is beneficial in Smart Grids with limited computing capabilities. For a real-world data set with 11 PV plants, the accuracy of AutoPV is comparable to a model trained on two years of data and outperforms an incrementally trained model.