论文标题

车辆运动在猪疾病传播中的作用:新方法占病原体稳定性和车辆清洁有效性不确定性

The role of vehicle movement in swine disease dissemination: novel method accounting for pathogen stability and vehicle cleaning effectiveness uncertainties

论文作者

Galvis, Jason A., Machado, Gustavo

论文摘要

储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具,其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而,其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间,然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用,该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明,使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器,即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程,也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后,我们表明,当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声,甚至控制方程变得不准确时,我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测,从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。

The transmission dynamics of infectious diseases in animal production are driven by several propagation routes. Contaminated vehicles traveling between farms have been associated with indirect disease transmission. In this study, we used transportation vehicle data to analyze the magnitude of farm visits by different vehicles and to propose a methodology to reconstruct vehicle contact networks considering pathogen stability and cleaning and disinfection effectiveness. Here, we collected information from 6,363 farms and Global Positioning System (GPS) records from 567 vehicles used to transport feed, animals, and people. We reconstructed vehicle contacts among the farms, conserving pathogen stability decay and different probabilities of cleaning and disinfection. Results showed that vehicle movement networks were densely connected, with up to 86% of farms connected by these movements. Movements of vehicle transporting feed and pig among farms showed the highest network connectivity. The cleaning effectiveness of was variable among the different vehicle types and highly influenced by the frequency of vehicles stopping at clean stations. A large number of between-farm contacts with a pathogen stability >0.8 were present in the vehicle network even with 100% cleaning effectiveness. Finally, we identified that vehicles contacted farms from different companies. Thus, our results suggest the vehicle network is a potential mechanism for spreading pathogens among farms. Moreover, even with scenarios with high effectiveness of cleaning and disinfection, the risk of vehicles spreading diseases was not completely eliminated.

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