论文标题

俄罗斯对乌克兰的入侵有选择地将芬兰北约的讨论取代

The Russian invasion of Ukraine selectively depolarized the Finnish NATO discussion

论文作者

Xia, Yan, Gronow, Antti, Malkamäki, Arttu, Ylä-Anttila, Tuomas, Keller, Barbara, Kivelä, Mikko

论文摘要

俄罗斯在2022年对乌克兰的入侵极大地重塑了欧洲安全格局。在芬兰,关于北约的公众舆论长期以来一直在左右党派轴心上两极化,但入侵导致对加入北约的意见迅速融合。我们研究了芬兰Twitter上两极分化的参与者之间的去极化以及如何发生。通过分析转发模式,我们在入侵之前找到了三个分开的用户组:一个亲北约,左翼抗北约和一个阴谋反北约组。入侵后,左翼反北约小组成员脱离了转推泡沫,尽管他们在党派方面有所不同,但与北约集团有联系,而阴谋的反北约集团大多仍然是一个单独的集群。我们的内容分析表明,左翼反北约集团和亲北约集团是通过对俄罗斯的行动和共同的民主规范的共同谴责所弥合的,而另一个反北约集团主要围绕阴谋论和虚假信息建立,始终表现出明确的反北约态度。我们表明,外部威胁可以在与威胁有关的问题上弥合游击队的鸿沟,但是即使在戏剧性的外部威胁下,阴谋理论和虚假信息也可能持续存在。

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 dramatically reshaped the European security landscape. In Finland, public opinion on NATO had long been polarized along the left-right partisan axis, but the invasion led to a rapid convergence of the opinion toward joining NATO. We investigate whether and how this depolarization took place among polarized actors on Finnish Twitter. By analyzing retweeting patterns, we find three separated user groups before the invasion: a pro-NATO, a left-wing anti-NATO, and a conspiracy-charged anti-NATO group. After the invasion, the left-wing anti-NATO group members broke out of their retweeting bubble and connected with the pro-NATO group despite their difference in partisanship, while the conspiracy-charged anti-NATO group mostly remained a separate cluster. Our content analysis reveals that the left-wing anti-NATO group and the pro-NATO group were bridged by a shared condemnation of Russia's actions and shared democratic norms, while the other anti-NATO group, mainly built around conspiracy theories and disinformation, consistently demonstrated a clear anti-NATO attitude. We show that an external threat can bridge partisan divides in issues linked to the threat, but bubbles upheld by conspiracy theories and disinformation may persist even under dramatic external threats.

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