论文标题
北大西洋热带气旋与ENSO之间的联系在季节性预测中
The link between North Atlantic tropical cyclones and ENSO in seasonal forecasts
论文作者
论文摘要
这项研究评估了六个欧洲季节性预测模型模拟北大西洋上ENSO和热带气旋（TCS）之间观察到的链球连接的能力。尽管模型通常捕获盆地范围观察到的联系，但与重新分析相比，所有预测模型中的幅度都被高估了。此外，加勒比海中的ENSO -TC关系的模拟很差。结果表明，在某些模型中，对风剪切的预测似乎会影响远程连接的表示，但是对于高估该链接并不是完全充分的解释。
This study assesses the ability of six European seasonal forecast models to simulate the observed teleconnection between ENSO and tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic. While the models generally capture the basin-wide observed link, its magnitude is overestimated in all forecast models compared to reanalysis. Furthermore, the ENSO - TC relationship in the Caribbean is poorly simulated. It is shown that incorrect forecasting of wind shear appears to affect the representation of the teleconnection in some models, however it is not a completely sufficient explanation for the overestimation of the link.
