论文标题
基于连续的加固学习流流量流量预测
Streaming Traffic Flow Prediction Based on Continuous Reinforcement Learning
论文作者
论文摘要
交通流量预测是智能运输的重要组成部分。目标是根据传感器和流量网络记录的历史数据来预测未来的交通状况。随着城市的继续建设,将添加或修改运输网络的某些部分。如何准确预测扩展和不断发展的长期流媒体网络具有重要意义。为此,我们提出了一个新的基于仿真的标准,该标准考虑了模仿传感器模式的自主代理,并根据传感器的个人资料(例如,流量,速度,占用率)计划下一次访问。当代理可以完美模拟传感器的活动模式时,传感器记录的数据最准确。我们建议将问题提出为连续的增强学习任务,在该任务中,代理是下一个流动值预测变量,该动作是传感器中的下一个时间序列流值,环境状态是传感器和运输网络的动态融合表示。代理采取的操作改变了环境,这反过来迫使代理的模式更新,而代理商进一步探索了动态流量网络的变化,这有助于代理商更准确地预测其下次访问。因此,我们制定了一种策略,其中传感器和交通网络相互更新并结合了时间上下文,以量化状态表示随着时间的流逝而发展。
Traffic flow prediction is an important part of smart transportation. The goal is to predict future traffic conditions based on historical data recorded by sensors and the traffic network. As the city continues to build, parts of the transportation network will be added or modified. How to accurately predict expanding and evolving long-term streaming networks is of great significance. To this end, we propose a new simulation-based criterion that considers teaching autonomous agents to mimic sensor patterns, planning their next visit based on the sensor's profile (e.g., traffic, speed, occupancy). The data recorded by the sensor is most accurate when the agent can perfectly simulate the sensor's activity pattern. We propose to formulate the problem as a continuous reinforcement learning task, where the agent is the next flow value predictor, the action is the next time-series flow value in the sensor, and the environment state is a dynamically fused representation of the sensor and transportation network. Actions taken by the agent change the environment, which in turn forces the agent's mode to update, while the agent further explores changes in the dynamic traffic network, which helps the agent predict its next visit more accurately. Therefore, we develop a strategy in which sensors and traffic networks update each other and incorporate temporal context to quantify state representations evolving over time.